本文转自《CERAWEEK》发表的题为“CCUS: Is Carbon Capture Use and Sequestration a Key to Meeting Climate Goals?”的报道。

作者：Atul Arya

日期：2019.03.12

原文链接：https://ceraweek.com/news/carbon-capture-use-and-sequestration.html?from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0

Why a rapid scaleup of CCUS is essential for meeting climate and emissions targets

为什么快速扩大CCUS对于实现气候和排放目标至关重要？

This article ran in a special section of the Wall Street Journal published on March 12, 2019. 

本文发表于2019年3月12日出版的“华尔街日报”特刊。

CCS — “carbon capture and sequestration” — is back on the energy agenda. The reason is clear. Meeting the world’s growing demand for energy while also reducing carbon emissions is an enormous challenge for the 21st century. The main approaches put forward today for addressing it — adopting low carbon and renewable sources of energy and increasing energy efficiency — can’t get the job done on their own. Meeting the challenge will require deployment of an approach that had some attention before, then seemed to fade away. But it is back in a new form, this time with a “U”— as CCUS, with a focus not only on capture and storage but also on “utilization,” or “use,” of the carbon for applications like increasing output from oil wells or as an input for creating useful products. A rapid scaleup of CCUS is essential for meeting climate and emissions targets while not crippling economic growth. 

CCS--“碳捕集与封存” - 重新回到能源议程上。 原因很清楚。 满足世界不断增长的能源需求，同时减少碳排放是21世纪的巨大挑战。 今天提出的解决这一问题的主要方法 - 采用低碳和可再生能源以及提高能源效率 - 无法独立完成工作。 迎接挑战需要部署一种以前有一些关注的方法，然后似乎逐渐消失。 但它又回到了一个新的形式，这次是一个“U” - 作为CCUS，不仅关注捕获和存储，而且还关注碳的“利用”或“使用”，以增加来自 油井或作为创造有用产品的投入。 快速扩大CCUS对于实现气候和排放目标至关重要，同时不会削弱经济增长。

The reason CCUS will have to play a key role is simple: Despite rapid recent growth in renewable sources like wind and solar, the world still relies on fossil fuels to meet about 80 percent of its energy needs. Shifting the balance in the world’s energy mix from a reliance on fossil fuels to renewable energy sources will require considerable time. 

CCUS必须发挥关键作用的原因很简单：尽管近期风能和太阳能等可再生能源发展迅速，但世界仍然依赖化石燃料来满足其80％的能源需求。从依赖化石燃料到可再生能源来改变世界能源结构的平衡将需要相当长的时间。

Much of the focus today is on decarbonizing electric power production, but it should be noted that only about one quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are from electricity. Coal, the most carbon-intensive fuel, accounts for about 40 percent of power generation globally. Even if coal consumption were to plateau within the next few years, it will remain the fuel of choice in Asia for decades to come. Coal is a cheap, reliable, and secure energy source in China and India, two countries with the fastest growth in electricity demand. Rapid closure of coal-fired power plants in these countries is economically and politically infeasible. 

今天的重点主要是电力生产的脱碳，但应该指出的是，全球温室气体（GHG）排放中只有约四分之一来自电力。煤炭是碳密集度最高的燃料，约占全球发电量的40％。即使煤炭消费在未来几年内达到稳定水平，它仍将是未来几十年亚洲的首选燃料。在中国和印度这两个电力需求增长最快的国家，煤炭是一种廉价，可靠和安全的能源。这些国家的燃煤电厂的快速关闭在经济和政治上是不可行的。

There are comparable obstacles to changing the energy mix in other sectors. Shifting the world’s car, truck, plane, and shipping fleets from oil-based to low carbon fuels will require decades, not years. And in industries like refining, petrochemicals, and cement and steel production, which together generate about 20 percent of global GHG emissions, carbon abatement is even more challenging. Because of these facts, every long-term outlook, including all IHS Markit scenarios, fall well short of achieving the goal set out in the 2015 Paris Accord of limiting the increase in average global temperature to 2 degrees Celsius. As a result, there is a growing realization that a strategy including CCUS is needed to achieve the Paris goals. 

改变其他部门的能源结构存在类似的障碍。 将世界上的汽车，卡车，飞机和运输船队从油基燃料转向低碳燃料需要几十年而不是几年。 在炼油，石化，水泥和钢铁生产等行业中，碳排放总量约占全球温室气体排放量的20％，因此减碳更具挑战性。 由于这些事实，每个长期前景，包括所有IHS Markit情景，都远远达不到2015年巴黎协议中规定的将全球平均温度上升限制在2摄氏度的目标。 因此，人们越来越意识到需要一个包括CCUS在内的战略来实现巴黎目标。

CCUS as a bridge 

CCUS作为桥梁

CCUS deployed at scale is the necessary bridge to a future in which the global energy system can run on cost-competitive renewables and storage technologies alone. IHS Markit has recently developed a scenario in which the world meets the 2 degree goal with reliance on CCUS at scale as part of the equation. CCUS has already been proven in some domains. The oil industry has decades of experience, starting in the 1970s, of safely injecting gases of varying types into oil reservoirs to increase production, in a technique known as enhanced oil recovery (EOR). CCUS for EOR is a proven technology and is now seeing widespread use in the Permian Basin in Texas. The industry has a very good understanding of the geology, and injected CO2 is monitored for any leaks. This expertise can also be used to sequester CO2 permanently in depleted oil and gas fields. Offshore fields are an attractive initial target for sequestration at scale because of their size and because they are far away from population centers. 

CCUS大规模部署是未来的必然桥梁，全球能源系统可以单独使用具有成本竞争力的可再生能源和存储技术。 IHS Markit最近开发了一个场景，在这个场景中，世界符合2度目标，依靠CCUS作为一部分。 CCUS已在某些领域得到证实。从20世纪70年代开始，石油工业拥有数十年的经验，即通过一种称为提高采收率（EOR）的技术，将各种类型的气体安全地注入油藏以增加产量。 CCUS for EOR是一种经过验证的技术，目前在德克萨斯州的二叠纪盆地得到广泛应用。该行业对地质有了很好的了解，并且监测注入的二氧化碳是否存在任何泄漏。这种专业知识还可用于在耗尽的油气田中永久封存二氧化碳。海上油田因其规模和远离人口中心而成为大规模封存的有吸引力的初始目标。

The challenge of scaling

扩展的挑战

Scale-up and large-scale deployment of CCUS remains the challenge. The IHS Markit CCS/CCUS project database shows that between 2012 and 2017 the number of large integrated CCS and CCUS projects in operation doubled — but just from 8 to 17. The bulk of these are in the United States, Canada, and Norway. China also has seven projects in various stages of development. 

CCUS的扩大和大规模部署仍然是一项挑战。 IHS Markit CCS / CCUS项目数据库显示，2012年至2017年，运营中的大型综合CCS和CCUS项目数量增加了一倍 - 但仅为8至17.其中大部分位于美国，加拿大和挪威。中国还有七个处于不同发展阶段的项目。

In the last couple of years, new projects have come online in the U.S. that have successfully demonstrated that CCUS technology can be applied at scale. In 2018, Congress approved an expansion of tax credits for CCUS facilities across a wide range of industrial sectors. For facilities targeting EOR, the new per metric ton credit started in 2017 at nearly $13 and rises linearly until 2026 to reach $35, where it will remain for the life of the credit period (12 years from project start). The credit for captured CO2 stored in geological formations starts at $20 per metric ton and eventually rises to $50 per metric ton. 

在过去的几年里，美国的新项目已经上线，成功地证明了CCUS技术可以大规模应用。 2018年，国会批准扩大CCUS设施的税收抵免，涉及广泛的工业部门。对于针对EOR的设施，新的每公吨信贷在2017年开始时接近13美元，并且线性上升到2026年达到35美元，在信用期（项目开始后12年）内将保持不变。储存在地质构造中的二氧化碳捕获量的信贷起价为每公吨20美元，最终升至每公吨50美元。

There is also increasing policy support for CCUS projects around the world. In Europe, the focus is on industrial emissions. In May 2018, Norway announced that it is allocating $33 million to continue the development of its full-chain CCS concept. The European Union is providing additional funding to CCS/CCUS projects through the EU Emissions Trading System Innovation Fund and the Horizon Europe research and innovation fund.

全球CCUS项目的政策支持也在不断增加。 在欧洲，重点是工业排放。 2018年5月，挪威宣布将分配3300万美元用于继续开发其全链CCS概念。 欧盟通过欧盟排放交易体系创新基金和Horizon Europe研究与创新基金为CCS / CCUS项目提供额外资金。

Despite these developments, CCUS deployment at scale needs to be accelerated. The challenges are significant: the high cost of CO2 capture, lack of infrastructure, absence of policy incentives such as a carbon price, and public acceptance. 

尽管有这些发展，但需要加速大规模部署CCUS。 挑战非常严重：二氧化碳捕集成本高，缺乏基础设施，缺乏碳价等政策激励措施，以及公众接受度。

In the United States, the National Petroleum Council is conducting a major study to define potential pathways for deploying CCUS at scale, including R&D, regulatory, and policy options. China will also play a key role. It has abundant resources, low development costs, and significant experience in large-scale industrial operations. To meet its own emission commitments and address local air pollution, China will have to accelerate CCUS deployment significantly. The new carbon market in China is expected to provide an impetus. Reducing CO2 emissions will require a diverse set of technology and policy tools. CCUS will have to be one of them. 

在美国，国家石油委员会正在进行一项重大研究，以确定大规模部署CCUS的潜在途径，包括研发，监管和政策选择。 中国也将发挥关键作用。 资源丰富，开发成本低，大型工业运营经验丰富。 为了履行自己的排放承诺并解决当地的空气污染问题，中国必须大大加快CCUS的部署。 预计中国新的碳市场将提供动力。 减少二氧化碳排放需要各种技术和政策工具。 CCUS必须是其中之一。

Atul Arya is Senior Vice President of Energy and Chief Energy Strategist at IHS Markit.   

Atul Arya是IHS Markit的能源和首席能源战略高级副总裁。