本文转自《Phys.org》发表的题为“Reducing US coal emissions through biomass and carbon capture would boost employment”的报道。

日期：2018.11.1

原文链接：https://phys.org/news/2018-11-coal-emissions-biomass-carbon-capture.html

Credit: Grant Wilson/public domain

While the need for solutions for the impending consequences of rising global temperatures has become increasingly urgent, many people have expressed concerns about the loss of jobs as current technologies like coal-fired power plants are phased out. A new study appearing November 1 in the journal Joule has run the numbers associated with the impacts of cutting coal plant jobs while at the same time employing techniques for bioenergy coupled with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The model indicates that the BECCS approach would not only retain 40,000 jobs currently held as part of the coal industry but would create 22,000 new jobs in the forestry and transportation sectors by the middle of this century.

虽然迫切需要解决全球气温上升迫在眉睫的后果，但许多人对失去工作表示担忧，因为燃煤电厂等现有技术已逐步淘汰。 11月1日在Joule杂志上发表的一项新研究显示，与削减煤电厂工作的影响相关的数据，同时采用生物能技术与碳捕获与储存（BECCS）相结合的技术。 该模型表明，BECCS方法不仅将保留目前作为煤炭工业一部分的40,000个工作岗位，而且到本世纪中叶将在林业和运输部门创造22,000个新工作岗位。

"In the ambitious attempt to limit global warming below 2°C, BECCS features as the dominant technology, yet it's been under considerable scrutiny for its unknown effects on the environment and society," says first author Piera Patrizio, a research scholar in Ecosystems Services and Management at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. "Our analysis shows that acting now and investing in this emission-mitigating strategy can be beneficial for employment in the U.S. coal sector."

“在将全球变暖限制在2°C以下的雄心勃勃的尝试中，BECCS作为主导技术的特点，但它对环境和社会的未知影响一直受到相当严格的审查，”第一作者Piera Patrizio说（他是奥地利拉克森堡国际应用系统分析研究所/生态系统服务和管理的一名研究学者）。 “我们的分析显示，现在采取行动并投资于减排战略可能有利于美国煤炭行业的就业。”

BECCS is a proposed technology for reducing the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It combines carbon capture and storage, in which CO2 is collected from large emission sources such as power plants and injected into underground geologic formations, with the increased use of biomass, like plant-based materials, as a source of fuel. Proponents of BECCS predict that more than 99% of carbon dioxide stored through geologic sequestration is likely to stay in place for more than 1,000 years. They say this approach is necessary because the levels of CO2 that already have been released are too high to be absorbed by conventional carbon sinks like trees and soil alone.

BECCS是一种用于减少温室气体释放到大气中的技术。它结合了碳捕获和储存，其中从大型排放源（如发电厂）收集二氧化碳并注入地下地质构造，增加使用生物质（如植物基材料）作为燃料来源。 BECCS的支持者预测，通过地质封存储存的超过99％的二氧化碳可能会保留1000多年。他们说这种方法是必要的，因为已经释放的二氧化碳水平太高，不能被传统的碳汇（如树木和土壤）吸收。

In the new study, the researchers studied in detail the major processes and steps involved in the potential energy supply chains for the U.S. coal fleet. Specifically, they looked at the supply of sustainable forest resources for biomass and the design and cost of infrastructure for transporting and injecting CO2 into appropriate geologic sites.

在这项新研究中，研究人员详细研究了美国煤炭船队潜在能源供应链的主要流程和步骤。 具体而言，他们研究了生物质可持续森林资源的供应情况以及将二氧化碳运输和注入适当地质基地的基础设施的设计和成本。

"We also took into account the fact that biomass must be grown and harvested in a sustainable way in order to be considered carbon-neutral and thus obtain negative emissions," explains co-author Sabine Fuss, of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change in Berlin. "This aspect is sometimes neglected in studies dealing with BECCS deployment."

“我们还考虑到这样一个事实，即必须以可持续的方式种植和收获生物质，以便被认为是碳中性的，从而获得负排放，”共同作者，全球共享墨卡托研究所的Sabine Fuss解释说。 柏林的气候变化。 “在处理BECCS部署的研究中，这方面有时被忽略了。”

The investigators used a number of different models to analyze existing data, including a biophysical model called the Global Forest Model; a techno-economic model called BeWhere, which optimizes the technology development of U.S. coal, including feedstock logistics; and the Jobs and Economic Development Impact model, which they used to estimate the employment impacts of technology development.

研究人员使用了许多不同的模型来分析现有数据，包括称为全球森林模型的生物物理模型;一种名为BeWhere的技术经济模型，它优化了美国煤炭的技术开发，包括原料物流;和就业和经济发展影响模型，他们用来估计技术发展的就业影响。

There are some limitations to this type of analysis. For one thing, it does not consider the potential substitution of coal with other low-carbon options like renewables; thus, it reflects a limited picture of the future economy. For another, the models don't include any equilibrium in the economy, but are a bottom-up supply-chain optimization for specific technologies. Depending on these issues, outcomes of employing BECCS could differ with regard to job creation. Further analysis could therefore focus on emphasizing the socioeconomic effects of substituting renewable technologies for existing fossil-based capacity or on detecting larger, macroeconomic effects of low-carbontechnology deployment, the researchers say.

这种分析存在一些局限性。一方面，它没有考虑煤与其他低碳方案如可再生能源的潜在替代品;因此，它反映了未来经济的有限图景。另一方面，模型不包括经济中的任何均衡，而是针对特定技术的自下而上的供应链优化。根据这些问题，使用BECCS的结果可能会因创造就业而有所不同。因此，研究人员表示，进一步的分析可以侧重于强调可再生技术替代现有化石能力的社会经济效应，或者探测低碳技术部署的更大宏观经济效应。

"To increase the acceptance of mitigation actions, policymakers should embrace strategies that offer other societal benefits, such as jobs," concludes co-author Kasparas Spokas from Princeton University. "The U.S. represents a very interesting case to test our approach given the current economic, political, and environmental situation. This study shows how investing in climate change mitigation could actually ease the transition for coal workers, who would otherwise be confronted with abrupt job losses due to the retirement of the coal fleet by 2050."

普林斯顿大学的共同作者Kasparas Spokas总结道：“为了增加对减缓行动的接受度，政策制定者应该接受提供其他社会效益的战略，例如就业机会。” “考虑到目前的经济，政治和环境状况，美国代表了一个非常有趣的案例来测试我们的方法。这项研究表明，减少气候变化的投资如何能够真正缓解煤炭工人的过渡，否则他们将面临突然失业的问题。 由于2050年煤炭船队退休。“