本文转自《YAHOO!》发表的题为“Is Carbon Capture The Only Option We Have?”的报道。

作者：Richard Talley

日期：2018.10.26

原文链接：https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carbon-capture-only-option-170000301.html

In the wake of the recent UN report that unambiguously warned to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to avert catastrophic climate effects, the debate on how to decouple GDP growth from CO2 emissions has only intensified. But while many see the report as the official death sentence of fossil fuels, particularly coal, Australia is taking a different approach. Rather than engaging in “coal wars”, the country’s chief scientist has urged all parties to focus on the baseline: how do we reduce CO2 emissions to cap global warming at the upper limit of 1.5°C?

在最近的联合国报告明确警告减少二氧化碳排放以避免灾难性气候影响之后，关于如何将GDP增长与二氧化碳排放脱钩的争论只会加剧。但是，虽然许多人认为该报告是化石燃料，特别是煤炭的官方死刑判决，但澳大利亚采取了不同的做法。该国首席科学家不是参与“煤战”，而是敦促各方关注基线：我们如何减少二氧化碳排放，将全球变暖限制在1.5°C的上限？

The scientist, Dr. Alan Finkel, argued that the focus should be on outcomes (reduced atmospheric emissions) and that governments should “use whatever underlying technology are suitable for that”. The reason behind this is simple: stopping coal use within the next 15 years, as pressed by the UN report, is an unrealistic target for too many developing countries that rely on the fuel, and will continue doing so for the foreseeable future. And now, the IPCC may have provided the final trigger to spur the rise of carbon-reducing technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CSS), as a viable option to reduce harmful emissions.

科学家Alan Finkel博士认为，重点应放在结果（减少大气排放）上，政府应该“使用任何适用于此的基础技术”。这背后的原因很简单：正如联合国报告所强调的那样，在未来15年内停止使用煤炭对太多依赖燃料的发展中国家来说是一个不切实际的目标，并且在可预见的未来将继续这样做。现在，IPCC可能已经提供了最终的触发因素，以促进碳减排技术（如碳捕获和存储（CSS））的崛起，作为减少有害排放的可行选择。

Unrealistic phase-out

不切实际的逐步淘汰

Conventional thinking argues that in order to slash emissions in line with IPCC findings, there needs to be rapid progress in the decommissioning of coal-fired power plants, followed by their swift replacement with renewables. But for many countries, especially developing nations, sticking to the UN’s phase-out schedule is a tall order. The low-key response to date reflects the challenges facing governments having to balance the social, economic and political implications of going green.

传统观点认为，为了根据IPCC的调查结果减少排放量，燃煤电厂的退役需要迅速取得进展，然后迅速取代可再生能源。 但对许多国家，特别是发展中国家而言，坚持联合国的淘汰时间表是一项艰巨的任务。 迄今为止的低调回应反映了各国政府必须在平衡绿色环保的社会，经济和政治影响方面所面临的挑战。

Australia has been among the most vocal critics of the report’s ambitious timeline and a proponent for advancing CCS. The country’s environment minister, Melissa Price, reiterated that Canberra’s primary commitment was lowering domestic electricity prices, for which coal is indispensable. But more importantly, Australia’s reluctance to abandon coal, which generates two-thirds of its electricity and is a significant export, highlights that abolishing coal is economically difficult even for rich countries – and barely affordable for developing ones in need of meeting their growing energy needs.

澳大利亚一直是该报告雄心勃勃的时间表和推动CCS的支持者的最直言不讳的批评者之一。该国环境部长Melissa Price重申，堪培拉的主要承诺是降低国内电价，煤炭是必不可少的。但更重要的是，澳大利亚不愿放弃生产三分之二电力并且是重要出口的煤炭，这表明即使对富裕国家而言，取消煤炭在经济上也是困难的 - 对于需要满足其日益增长的能源需求的发展中国家来说，几乎无法负担得起。

As emerging economies are focused on stimulating growth, their energy needs are rising in parallel. For better or worse, coal remains one of the cheapest ways of satisfying increased energy consumption, compared with alternative sources of electricity that can be three or four times more expensive. Unsurprisingly, coal demand is predicted to rise in Asia and Africa, which will compensate for falling Western demand.

由于新兴经济体注重刺激经济增长，其能源需求正在同步增长。无论好坏，煤炭仍然是满足增加的能源消耗的最便宜的方式之一，而替代电力来源可能要贵三到四倍。不出所料，预计亚洲和非洲的煤炭需求将增加，这将弥补西方需求的下降。

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Currently, coal supplies a third of total global energy demand, roughly 76 percent of which comes from China, and developing countries keen to augment their coal-fired power capacity. A total of 70 gigawatts of new coal capacity was added globally in 2016. In India alone, roughly 50 gigawatts of new coal-fired power generation capacity is under construction. Countries as varied as Indonesia, Kosovo, South Africa and Kenya are following suit. For them, abandoning fossil fuels could slow the development of essential energy capacity and result in the re-prioritization of funds earmarked for infrastructure development.

目前，煤炭供应占全球总能源需求的三分之一，其中约76％来自中国，发展中国家则热衷于增加其燃煤发电能力。 2016年全球新增煤炭总产能增加70千兆瓦。仅在印度，大约50千兆瓦的新燃煤发电能力正在建设中。 印度尼西亚，科索沃，南非和肯尼亚等国家也纷纷效仿。 对他们而言，放弃化石燃料可能会减缓基本能源产能的发展，并导致重新确定用于基础设施发展的资金的优先顺序。

Is a CCS sea-change coming?

CCS是否会发生变化？

This and the urgency of climate change make CCS look increasingly like a viable compromise. And as it happens, several factors are now converging into ideal conditions for the technology to take off in earnest. First, stricter environmental controls have led to a sustained “flight to quality” coal, which creates fewer emissions. Low-grade coal supplies are therefore increasingly superseded by higher-quality alternatives in the market.

这和气候变化的紧迫性使CCS看起来越来越像是一种可行的妥协。 事实上，现在有几个因素正在融合到理想的技术条件下才能真正起飞。 首先，更严格的环境控制导致持续的“飞向优质”煤炭，从而减少排放。 因此，低品位煤炭供应越来越多地被市场上更高质量的替代品所取代。

Subsequent price increases of high-quality coal caused by environmental regulations, in turn, is making CCS applications profitable – a vital step because according to models by the International Energy Agency (IEA), carbon capture is “the only technology able to deliver significant emissions reductions from the use of fossil fuels.” The technology could account for at least 13 percent of cumulative emissions reductions by 2050, making CCS indispensable for worldwide deep emissions cuts.

反过来，由环境法规引起的优质煤的后续价格上涨正在使CCS应用获利 - 这是至关重要的一步，因为根据国际能源署（IEA）的模型，碳捕获是“唯一能够产生大量排放的技术 减少使用化石燃料。“到2050年，该技术可占累计减排量的至少13％，使CCS成为全球深度减排必不可少的因素。