本文转自《Green Tech Media》发表的题为“As the Push for Carbon Capture Continues, Analysts Offer Differing Views of Its Future”的报道。

日期：2018.06.11

原文链接：https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/analysts-offer-differing-views-on-the-future-of-carbon-capture#gs.p8CTFEQ

A new tax credit and political momentum have raised carbon capture’s profile. But is it enough?

新的税收抵免和政治动力提高了碳捕获的概况。 但它足够了吗？

Carbon capture and sequestration tied to natural-gas processing presents "low-hanging fruit" for the technology.

与天然气加工有关的碳捕获和封存为该技术带来“低洼的成果”。

Congressional approval of the 45Q tax credit for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) in February signaled a revival of support for the technology.

国会在二月份批准了二氧化碳捕获和封存45Q税收抵免（CCS），标志着对该技术的支持正在复苏。

Later that month, a group supporting the use of CCS expanded and broadened its focus, renaming itself the Carbon Capture Coalition. It pledged to push for further legislation.

2月以后，一个支持使用CCS的团体扩大了焦点范围，重新命名为碳捕获联盟。 它承诺推动进一步立法。

In April, energy heavyweights came together to form a coalition called the Energy Advance Center “to promote the energy industry’s interests in issues related to carbon capture and storage.” 

今年四月，能源巨头联合组建了一个名为“能源促进中心”的联盟，以“促进能源行业在与碳捕获和储存相关的问题上的利益。”

Then, last week, bipartisan legislation referred to as the USE It Act, which supports research for the technology, passed through the Senate Environment and Public Works committee. 

然后，上周，参议院环境和公共工程委员会通过的两党立法被称为“ USE It” 行动，它支持该技术的研究。

The bill appealed both to senators who see it as “part of a necessary solution to the climate change crisis,” such as Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, and to those who support an “all-of-the-above energy strategy,” such as West Virginia Republican Shelley Moore Capito. 

该法案呼吁参议员们将其视为“气候变化危机的必要解决方案的一部分”，如民主党人Sheldon Whitehouse，以及那些支持“所有上述能源战略”的人，如西部 弗吉尼亚共和党人Shelley Moore Capito。

Viewed by many as an essential element of meeting the Paris climate targets, the political fortunes of CCS seemed to be rising with both Republicans and Democrats, even as the Trump administration celebrates the one-year anniversary of announcing its intent to exit the climate pact.

许多人认为CCS技术是实现巴黎气候目标的基本要素，即使特朗普政府在庆祝其宣布退出气候协议的一周年之际，CCS技术的政治命运似乎也随着共和党人和民主党人的兴起而上升。

But recent reports, including one forthcoming from Wood Mackenzie and another from the Energy Futures Initiative (EFI), show that analysts remain divided on the technology's prospects.

但最近的报道，包括来自Wood Mackenzie和Energy Futures Initiative（EFI）的另一份报告显示，分析师对技术前景仍然存在分歧。

While supporters of 45Q said the new credit will “without a doubt” propel innovation and investment in CCS, other industry watchers say the economics still don’t pencil out for the global CCS revolution that dramatic climate progress requires.  

虽然45Q的支持者表示，新的信贷“毫无疑问”将推动CCS的创新和投资，但其他行业观察人士认为，经济仍然不会为全球CCS革命带来巨大的气候进步需求。

The Wood Mackenzie report, not yet released, largely examines the potential for CCS in natural-gas processing, which analysts call “low-hanging fruit” because processing natural gas already requires the separation of carbon dioxide. The report’s authors identified 60 global developments where CCS could be applied. Wood Mackenzie.

Wood Mackenzie的报告尚未公布，报告主要考察了天然气加工中CCS的潜力，分析人士称这种“低挂果”，因为处理天然气已经需要分离二氧化碳。 该报告的作者指出了可以应用CCS的60个全球发展情况。

But even with the comparatively low cost of CCS associated with those projects, and the doubling in CCS capacity the application would bring, “the scale of such developments will have limited impact on achieving future targets” required to meet climate goals, write the authors.

但作者写道，即使与这些项目相关的CCS成本相对较低，以及应用所带来的CCS能力翻倍，“这种发展的规模对达成气候目标所需的未来目标影响有限”。

.

Wood Mackenzie’s Head of Gas, LNG and Carbon Consulting, Gavin Law, said that gives him pause about the technology’s applications. 

Wood Mackenzie的天然气主管，液化天然气和碳咨询公司Gavin Law说，这让他暂停了技术的应用。

“The point is, I think these companies — which are some of the largest companies in the world — are talking about projects that are really in the grand scheme of things quite exciting,” said Law. “But they’re not really making a big dent under what’s required by the Paris Agreement.”

“关键是，我认为这些公司 - 它们是世界上最大的一些公司 - 正在谈论真正处于相当激动人心的宏伟计划中的项目，”Law说。 “但是他们并没有真正在巴黎协议所要求的范围内造成巨大的影响。”

Although the costs of separating carbon dioxide are already built into natural-gas processing, the costs of compression and reinjection are not, meaning CCS operations could add “significantly” to overall costs. Researchers at Wood Mackenzie estimated that a carbon price of $60 to $100 per ton for natural-gas processing and over $100 per ton for post-combustion projects would be needed to make projects economically viable.

尽管分离二氧化碳的成本已经建立在天然气处理的基础上，但是压缩和再注入的成本并不高，这意味着CCS业务可能会“显着”增加总体成本。 Wood Mackenzie的研究人员估计，为了使项目在经济上可行，需要每吨60至100美元的天然气加工价格和燃烧后项目每吨100美元以上的碳价格。

“I get the impression that CCS is perceived as something that’s more about PR and R&D than it is about a viable element to the energy sector,” Law said.

“我的印象是，CCS被认为更像是公共关系和研发，而不是能源部门可行的因素，”Law说。

Because past CCS projects have benefited from one-time government grants or legislative requirements, analysts at Wood Mackenzie argue that increased incentives will be required to grow the CCS project pipeline beyond the 22 projects currently online or under construction.

由于过去的CCS项目受益于一次性政府补助金或立法要求，Wood Mackenzie的分析师认为，将CCS项目管道扩大到目前在线或正在建设的22个项目之外，将需要增加激励措施。

“Incentives aside, it would appear that the CCS industry has a huge challenge ahead,” the Wood Mackenzie report states.

抛开激励机制，CCS行业面临巨大挑战，“Wood Mackenzie报告指出。

Those arguments stand in contrast to a recently released policy paper from EFI, a group led by former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz.

这些论据与EFI最近发布的政策文件形成对比，EFI是由前能源部长欧内斯特莫尼斯领导的一个小组。

Authors of that report argue that the 45Q credit may “significantly enhance the development and market diffusion of CCUS [carbon capture, utilization and storage] technologies and processes in both industrial and power applications, creating commercial opportunities both in the U.S. and abroad.” They estimate the 45Q expansion could lead to between 50 million and 100 million tons of CO2 being captured and stored per year.

该报告的作者认为，45Q信贷可能“显着增强CCUS [碳捕集，利用和存储]技术和工艺在工业和电力应用中的开发和市场传播，在美国和海外创造商业机会。”他们估计45Q的扩张可能导致每年捕获和储存5000万至1亿吨二氧化碳。

The report also notes that natural-gas processing and other activities that create a pure stream of CO2, like ammonia production, are the most economic candidates for CCS. With the $50 per ton credit from 45Q for geological storage and the $35 per ton for CO2 sold to oil fields for enhanced oil recovery, EFI said the credits provide “substantially higher revenues” than it costs to retrofit plants.

该报告还指出，天然气处理和其他创造纯二氧化碳的活动，如氨生产，是CCS最经济的候选对象。 由于地质封存45Q每吨50美元的信贷和卖给油田的二氧化碳每吨35美元，以提高石油采收率，EFI表示这些信贷提供的“收入大大高于”改造工厂的成本。

EFI does, however, agree that added policy levers, like handling post-injection uncertainties, may be required to make CCS possible for a wider swath of commercial projects. But Julio Friedmann, an author of the report who is on leave as a senior fellow at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said the carbon price doesn't need to be as high as the one outlined in the Wood Mackenzie report.  

然而，EFI确实认为可能需要增加政策杠杆，如处理注入后不确定性，以使CCS成为更广泛的商业项目。 但该报告作者之一且是Lawrence Livermore国家实验室的高级研究员Julio Friedmann说，碳价并不需要像Wood Mackenzie报告中所述的那样高。

“Substantial deployment of CCUS into the power sector (coal, gas or biomass) requires additional policy measures,” he said. “However, a ‘price on carbon’ needn’t be one.”

“将CCUS大量部署到电力行业（煤炭，天然气或生物质能）需要额外的政策措施，”他说。 “但是，'碳价格'不一定是一个。”

In its report, EFI claims the impact of 45Q is comparable to a price on carbon because “in establishing the level of the tax incentive for CO2 capture, the 115th Congress has tacitly placed a value on avoiding CO2 in the atmosphere.” EFI said 45Q cannot stand in for U.S. commitments under the Paris Agreement; however, taken together with actions from cities and states, it helps propel the U.S. forward and acts as a step toward more concrete climate policies.

在EFI的报告中，EFI声称45Q的影响与碳排放价格相当，因为“在确定二氧化碳捕集的税收激励水平时，第115届大会默认了避免大气中二氧化碳的价值。” EFI称45Q 不能容忍美国在“巴黎协定”下的承诺，然而，与城市和国家的行动一起，它有助于推动美国向前迈进，并为实现更具体的气候政策迈出一步。

Friedmann added that promising technologies under development from companies such as NET Power and Inventys could reach price points that make power sector deployment possible.

Friedmann补充说，NET Power和Inventys等公司正在开发的有前景的技术可以达到使电力部门部署成为可能的价格点。

NET Power announced last week that its first fire test, which basically proves whether its supercritical CCS demonstration plant in Texas will function, went smoothly. The company hopes to deploy 300-megawatt e-class commercial plants around the world starting in 2021.

NET Power上周宣布，它的第一次火灾测试，基本证明了其在德克萨斯州的超临界CCS示范工厂是否能够正常运行。 该公司希望从2021年起在全球范围内部署300兆瓦级的商用工厂。

Law, though, wonders if isolated examples like those can add up.

法律，但是，不知道像这些孤立的例子可以加起来。

“Maybe I’m missing something," he said. "The people who are doing these projects are obviously doing them for a reason, but is it more R&D and demonstration of ability to do them, or is it because it’s a commercially sensible thing to do?”

“也许我错过了一些东西，”他说，“做这些项目的人显然是出于某种原因去做这些项目，但是研发能力和演示能力如何，还是因为这是商业上可行的事情 去做？”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sees CCS as necessary to slow the steady march of climate change. According to EFI, 87 percent of IPCC models require carbon dioxide removal to join a roster of other climate mitigation activities to keep the world’s average temperature increase below 2 degrees.  

政府间气候变化专门委员会IPCC认为CCS是缓和气候变化稳定进程的必要条件。 根据EFI的报告，87％的IPCC模型需要去除二氧化碳，以加入其他气候缓解活动的名单，以保持世界平均气温升高2度以下。