本文转自《The Conference Board of Canada》发表的题为“Helping China may be Canada’s best bet to cut global emissions”的报道。

作者：Glen Hodgson / Senior Fellow（高级研究员）

原文链接：https://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/speech_oped/2018/04/11/helping-china-may-be-canada-s-best-bet-to-cut-global-emissions?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

This op-ed was originally published in The Globe and Mail on April 10, 2018.

本专栏最初发表于2018年4月10日的环球邮报。

Climate change is a global problem—not just a domestic one—requiring a global solution, involving many countries. It will be hard to make meaningful global progress without including the largest producers of emissions.

气候变化是一个全球性问题 - 不仅仅是国内问题 - 需要一个涉及许多国家的全球解决方案。如果不包括最大的排放生产者，就很难取得有意义的全球进展。

The U.S. federal government is on the sidelines for the moment, although many U.S. states and cities are continuing with concrete action to reduce their emissions.

目前美国联邦政府处于观望状态，尽管美国许多州和城市正在继续采取具体行动来减少排放。

China has replaced the United States as the world’s top energy consumer, accounting for 22 per cent of the world’s consumption. It is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2), accounting for 30 per cent of global emissions, because of its heavy use of coal. China faces a huge environmental challenge. Poor urban air quality is contributing to reduced life expectancy and hampering quality of life for its citizens, creating a strong and immediate incentive to reduce Chinese reliance on coal. However, the conversion to lower-carbon forms of power production—natural gas, nuclear and renewables—will not be easy. This is an area in which Canada can help.

中国已取代美国成为世界上最大的能源消费国，占全球消费量的22％。中国目前是二氧化碳（CO2）排放量最大的国家，占全球排放量的30％，因为其大量使用煤炭。因此中国面临巨大的环境挑战。城市空气质量变差导致人们的预期寿命缩短和公民的生活质量受到影响，为中国减少对煤炭的依赖创造了强有力的直接动力。然而，向低碳形式的电力生产转变，例如天然气，核能和可再生能源等，并非易事。这是加拿大可以提供帮助的领域。

The door is open if Canada chooses to step boldly through.

如果加拿大选择大胆采取措施，大门就会开放。

Canada could expand its role in support of China’s efforts to constrain, and then reduce, its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through an ambitious strategy of technical and commercial engagement. Canada and China agreed in December, 2017, to renew their bilateral understanding on environmental co-operation, and to seek ways to speed up the transition to a cleaner, low-carbon economy.

加拿大可以通过雄心勃勃的技术和商业参与战略扩大其支持中国努力约束和减少温室气体排放量的作用。加拿大和中国于2017年12月达成一致，重申双方对环境合作的谅解，并寻求加速向更清洁低碳经济转型的途径。

China is making progress. At the time of the Paris climate agreement’s signing in late 2015, China’s GHG emissions were expected to rise until 2030. China’s CO2 emissions now appear to be plateauing more than a decade ahead of its Paris Agreement commitment, according to the website Climate Action Tracker, produced by a consortium of climate scientists and think tanks. (No officially published annual emissions data for China apparently exist, so estimates are produced by academic institutes and scholars.)

中国正在取得进展。根据巴黎气候协议于2015年末签署的协议，中国的温室气体排放量预计将增加到2030年。根据气候行动追踪网站，中国的二氧化碳排放量现在似乎比巴黎协议承诺提前了十多年，由气候科学家和智囊团组成的联合会制作。 （没有正式公布的中国年度排放数据显然存在，所以估计是由学术机构和学者提供的。）

The latest analysis indicates that growth in China’s CO2 emissions may have already slowed sharply, which at first glance is a positive sign for the prospects of reducing global emissions significantly. The ongoing reduction in Chinese coal use, for the third year in a row, is reportedly having a major affect. Coal-burning thermal power plants are a key GHG emission source, as China relies on coal for more than 60 per cent of its electricity production.

最新的分析表明，中国二氧化碳排放量的增长可能已经大幅放缓，这对于显着减少全球排放的前景是一个积极迹象。据报道，连续三年中国煤炭使用量的持续减少产生了重大影响。燃煤火力发电厂是温室气体排放的主要来源，因为中国依靠煤炭生产60％以上的电力。

Yet, there are other reports that suggest China’s apparent progress may not be as impressive as it seems at first glance. While China halted plans in 2017 for more than 100 new coal-fired power plants, Chinese firms are reportedly building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, according to Urgewald, an environmental group based in Berlin. Most of the plants would be in China, but roughly one-fifth of the planned capacity will be in other countries.

然而，还有其他报道显示中国的明显进步可能并不像乍看起来那么令人印象深刻。据中国驻柏林环境组织Urgewald介绍，虽然中国在2017年停止了100多个新燃煤电厂的计划，但据报道，中国企业正在建设或计划在国内和全球范围内建设700多个新电厂。大多数工厂将在中国，但大约五分之一的计划产能将在其他国家。

Adding more coal-fired power plants would take China in the wrong direction. Enhanced conversion to gas-fired power plants and aggressive use of carbon-capture utilization and storage technology would be part of an interim solution, although China’s natural gas distribution infrastructure is reportedly inadequate for a rapid or wholesale conversion.

增加更多燃煤电厂将使中国走向错误的方向。 尽管据报道中国的天然气分销基础设施不足以实现快速或批量转换，但加强向燃气电厂的转换和积极使用碳捕集利用和存储技术将成为临时解决方案的一部分。

The door is open if Canada chooses to step boldly through. A well-developed domestic plan to reduce GHG emissions would show the Chinese leadership that Canada is to be taken seriously in a low-carbon economy.

如果加拿大选择大胆采取措施，大门就会开放。 一项发展完善的减少温室气体排放的国内计划将向中国领导人表明，加拿大将在低碳经济中受到重视。

What are the options for an ambitious engagement strategy? They include:

有雄心勃勃的参与策略有哪些选择？ 他们包括：

• Creating a broad platform for shared research on all aspects of climate-change science, policy and emissions-reduction options;
• Developing frequent exchanges of technical expertise, such as study tours and expert visits in both directions;
• Aggressively promoting Canadian low-carbon technology and services, both those that are commercially viable and those at the precommercial demonstration stage. CANDU nuclear energy systems, carbon-capture utilization and storage and hydrogen fuel cells are leading examples of advanced Canadian expertise;
• Ensuring full and innovative engagement of Export Development Canada, along with the Business Development Bank of Canada and Canadian Commercial Corp., with sufficient financial and risk-management support for Canadian environmental export businesses. These federal Crown corporations are already taking important steps to build their climate-change-related business. Deep engagement in China’s GHG reduction plans would be another order of magnitude, likely requiring additional financial capacity and expertise;
• Advancing Canada’s natural resource capacity, such as the supply of natural gas, as part of a transition strategy;

In short, helping China to adapt faster could be Canada’s most important global contribution to the low-carbon transition.

为共同研究气候变化科学，政策和减排方案的各个方面创建一个广泛的平台;

发展频繁的技术专业知识交流，如考察和双向专家访问;

积极推动加拿大低碳技术和服务，无论是商业上可行的还是商业前演示阶段的那些。 CANDU核能系统，碳捕集利用和储存以及氢燃料电池是加拿大先进专业技术的领先典范;

确保加拿大出口发展部门与加拿大商业发展银行和加拿大商业公司进行充分和创新的合作，为加拿大环境出口企业提供充足的财务和风险管理支持。这些联邦皇家公司已经在采取重要措施来建立与气候变化有关的业务。深入参与中国的温室气体减排计划将是另一个数量级，可能需要额外的财政能力和专业知识;

作为过渡战略的一部分，提升加拿大的天然资源能力，如天然气供应;

简而言之，帮助中国加快适应速度可能是加拿大对低碳转型最重要的全球贡献。

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